Outlandish-Mantel
0x81962d4b60e570db68de998ae77a35d07822ab69
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$466.81
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$49.29
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?
250 shares @ 84.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$243.75
$33.75
- YES
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?
656 shares @ 79.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$62.28
$-458.86
- YES
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
333 shares @ 50.1¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$58.29
$-108.73
- YES
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?
1214 shares @ 49.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$54.65
$-543.11
- YES
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
615 shares @ 28.9¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.37
$-150.70
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 71.6¢·now 67.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.46
$-1.40
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
700 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-217.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$1.5KMay 16, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$1.3KMay 16, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?$7.38May 15, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?$4.38May 15, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?$23.71May 15, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?$10.53May 14, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?$525.42May 14, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?$211.34May 14, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$135.54May 14, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$1.4KMay 12, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$1.8KMay 11, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$2.2KMay 11, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$24.19May 11, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$4.69May 11, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$117.11May 11, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$710.24May 11, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by May 31, 2026?$22.11May 11, 03:48 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$982.00May 9, 09:12 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$23.64May 9, 07:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $322.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 02:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 01:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".