GeopoliticsExpires May 22, 2026
Creator

Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?

Probability

10¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$2.7K

Liquidity

$16.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 22, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
11¢
May 11, 2026, 14:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:09 UTC
updated 06:09:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-09Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $16.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 22, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 89.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.

Biggest hourly move: -67.0pp at 14:00 (to 12¢).

Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · -63.0pp → 12¢
  • 14:00 · -67.0pp → 12¢
  • 13:00 · -62.0pp → 10¢
  • 11:00 · -58.0pp → 12¢
  • 07:00 · -60.0pp → 12¢
  • May 17, 06:00 UTC · -64.0pp → 12¢
  • May 17, 05:00 UTC · -59.0pp → 17¢
  • May 16, 20:00 UTC · -60.0pp → 19¢
updated 06:09:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:09:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventTrump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration officially announces any reduction, suspension, exemption, or other relief from U.S. export restrictions on artificial intelligence chips, advanced computing chips, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, or other AI-related technology exports to China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that US export restrictions on AI-related technologies will be suspended, reduced, exempted, or otherwise substantively relaxed. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Reductions, suspensions, exemptions, or other relief from export restrictions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:09:58 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $19.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $16.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket