Failing-Manhunt
0x8199d2d2813a60bc15580cc97f2e0e54c73abb6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$708.20
Realised
$480.03
Win rate
100%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
3220 shares @ 86.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$60.30
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
2911 shares @ 88.1¢·now 91.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.7K
$103.02
- YES
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
1046 shares @ 94.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$41.93
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
628 shares @ 96.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$612.55
$7.70
- NO
Tucker Carlson arrested by May 31?
173 shares @ 91.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$170.47
$12.24
- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
150 shares @ 97.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$146.25
$0.40
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?
136 shares @ 95.1¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$133.32
$4.27
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
166 shares @ 62.3¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.75
$10.37
- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
110 shares @ 92.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$106.03
$3.97
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
100 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$99.30
$4.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$931.00May 18, 06:39 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$3.10May 18, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$4.58May 18, 01:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.09May 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic IPO before 2027?$2.40May 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$764.98May 17, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$76.08May 17, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$74.80May 17, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$10.14May 17, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYDatabricks IPO before 2027?$1.30May 17, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$928.01May 17, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYDatabricks IPO before 2027?$3.90May 17, 08:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.10May 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYDatabricks IPO before 2027?$0.65May 16, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnduril Industries IPO before 2027?$4.50May 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade another country in 2026?$46.52May 16, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$29.82May 16, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$190.20May 16, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$95.30May 16, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$95.40May 16, 12:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $119.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 14:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".