BusinessExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.1pp

24h Vol

$11.4K

Liquidity

$5.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: disputed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.0pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:57 UTC
updated 06:57:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-57Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 99¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.1× turnover

    $11.4k traded against $5.3k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5441.0h

    LOW
  • 06:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.1pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at 19:00 (to 99¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
  • 06:57 · +3.6pp → 99¢
  • 05:00 · +3.8pp → 99¢
  • 03:00 · +3.9pp → 99¢
  • 01:00 · +3.9pp → 99¢
  • 23:00 · +3.9pp → 98¢
  • 21:00 · +3.7pp → 98¢
  • 19:00 · +4.0pp → 99¢
  • 17:00 · +3.2pp → 98¢
updated 06:57:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:57:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventIPOs before 2027?

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Business

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ipo

Reason

IPO markets are Business / corporate-finance events.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:57:34 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +4.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$11.4K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $600.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket