Affectionate-Bob
0x81f06a45509d0daad35ef6587bcad9652a3971ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$9.3K
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$305.68
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
ECB rate cut in 2026?
4250 shares @ 75.5¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$531.56
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
11180 shares @ 43.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.7K
$-3.1K
- YES
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
1925 shares @ 79.2¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$14.78
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
10000 shares @ 9.1¢·now 10.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.1K
$138.03
- NO
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 63.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$357.50
$42.50
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
4000 shares @ 6.9¢·now 5.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$220.00
$-57.50
- NO
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
229 shares @ 73.6¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$168.46
$-0.34
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
493 shares @ 50.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$155.43
$-91.28
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
5794 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$123.99
$-26.01
- YES
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1500 shares @ 4.3¢·now 7.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$108.75
$43.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$34.10May 17, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$49.35May 17, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$48.20May 17, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17?$153.19May 17, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$204.85May 15, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$95.59May 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$229.82May 15, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$418.52May 15, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$103.41May 15, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$452.26May 15, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$641.42May 15, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$120.13May 15, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$141.13May 14, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$155.34May 14, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$175.57May 14, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$674.22May 14, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$61.47May 14, 06:03 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$752.22May 14, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$102.40May 14, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$223.88May 14, 05:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $168.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 17:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 20:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".