BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2027
Creator

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Probability

20¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-15.5pp

24h Vol

$2.3K

Liquidity

$9.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-29.0pp 7d
1007550250
20¢
May 11, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:00 UTC
updated 05:12:15 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T05-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 16pp over 24h

    Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $9.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 25¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 14202.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-15.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.5pp at 05:00 (to 20¢).

Show top 8 of 56 hourly moves
  • 05:00 · -18.5pp → 20¢
  • 03:00 · -16.5pp → 21¢
  • 21:00 · -15.5pp → 28¢
  • 19:00 · -16.0pp → 23¢
  • May 16, 15:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 23¢
  • May 16, 13:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 23¢
  • May 16, 03:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 22¢
  • May 16, 02:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 22¢
updated 05:12:15 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 05:12:15 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventLead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Business

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ipo

Reason

IPO markets are Business / corporate-finance events.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:12:15 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -15.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -29.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2027 (2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$2.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $357.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket