First-Sphere
0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$149.5K
Total PnL
$-96.5K
Realised
$2.1K
Win rate
52%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
19018 shares @ 74.6¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.7K
$1.5K
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.6K
$4.1K
- NO
Iran leadership change by May 31?
8494 shares @ 82.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.9K
$827.24
- NO
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
7576 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.5K
$513.05
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
10000 shares @ 66.8¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.9K
$166.68
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
6639 shares @ 82.2¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.1K
$649.50
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
8411 shares @ 47.8¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$1.5K
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
5826 shares @ 84.9¢·now 95.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.5K
$605.86
- YES
Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5768 shares @ 81.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$5.1K
$425.46
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
8515 shares @ 62.5¢·now 59.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.1K
$-256.92
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump Insult Xi this week?$3.4KMay 18, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?$0.50May 18, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?$0.10May 18, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?$0.40May 18, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$1.00May 18, 03:14 UTC
- SPLITWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$3.0KMay 18, 00:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17?$1.5KMay 18, 00:46 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.50May 18, 00:45 UTC
- SPLITWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$10.0KMay 18, 00:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.93May 18, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$1.1KMay 18, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)$706.25May 17, 23:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17?$7.0KMay 17, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMElche CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5$1.5KMay 17, 23:26 UTC
- REDEEMReal Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score$500.00May 17, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLLevante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5$0.01May 17, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLLevante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5$0.01May 17, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLLevante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5$0.10May 17, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLLevante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5$0.01May 17, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLLevante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5$0.00May 17, 22:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $445.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 08:27 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".