SportsExpires Aug 2, 2026
Creator

Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

88¢

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.8pp

24h Vol

$3.2K

Liquidity

$7.1K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.1pp 7d
1007550250
88¢
May 11, 2026, 15:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 14:49 UTC
updated 14:49:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T14-49Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $7.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 2, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1809.2h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.8pp over the last 24h, now 88¢.

updated 14:49:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 14:49:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran participates in any official game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran of the nation’s removal or withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup will immediately resolve this market "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 14:49:32 GMT, YES is priced at 88% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +1.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 2, 2026 (2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $141.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket