Foolhardy-Conspiracy
0x8624b054c17a719b20464da2709ff2939a5bb484
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$398.63
Total PnL
$-301.59
Realised
$-64.68
Win rate
48%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?
513 shares @ 26.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$356.48
$223.10
- NO
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?
26 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$24.80
$0.62
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?
11 shares @ 49.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$7.81
$2.42
- YES
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 61.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.45
$-11.85
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 93.6¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.98
$0.04
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.84
$-0.21
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 13.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.63
$0.24
- YES
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
1 shares @ 53.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.35
$-0.17
- YES
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.19
$-0.86
- YES
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?
1 shares @ 7.0¢·now 8.8¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.09
$0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?$0.51May 7, 09:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tempo launch a token by March 31 2026?$1.00May 7, 09:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?$1.00May 7, 09:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$1.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMInfinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?$1.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?$2.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?$2.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Harbaugh join the Atlanta Falcons prior to April 23, 2026?$20.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$21.07May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$37.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$381.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$547.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$691.00May 7, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?$81.28Apr 21, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?$104.41Apr 21, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?$2.64Apr 21, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$1.20Feb 8, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLInsurrection Act invoked by March 31?$97.52Feb 8, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?$30.10Feb 8, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?$110.25Feb 8, 14:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $132.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 20:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 7, 09:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".