PoliticsExpires Jan 3, 2027
Creator

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Probability

24¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$25.56

Liquidity

$8.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 3, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Statements from Mitch McConnell
Type
Public-figure statement
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d
1007550250
24¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:00 UTC
updated 06:00:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $8.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jan 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5514.0h

    LOW
  • 06:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at May 15, 19:00 UTC (to 27¢).

Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
  • May 15, 23:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 27¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 27¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 27¢
  • May 15, 19:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 27¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 25¢
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 25¢
  • May 15, 07:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 26¢
  • May 13, 22:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 26¢
updated 06:00:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:00:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

senate

Reason

Question text contains "senate" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:00:45 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 3, 2027 (2027-01-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$25.56 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $113.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $8.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket