Reasonable-Withdrawal
0x8d971b3eebf8bcf7e748d9328dfec7b10a8afbd8
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
48
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$173.07
Realised
$13.58
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
2671 shares @ 10.6¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$507.44
$224.54
- YES
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
2286 shares @ 15.4¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$479.96
$127.67
- YES
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
100 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$100.00
$82.00
- YES
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
409 shares @ 12.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.51
$18.26
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
320 shares @ 9.6¢·now 19.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$63.15
$32.46
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
50 shares @ 66.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$43.00
$10.00
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
170 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$11.05
$-0.85
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 1.5¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.10
$3.10
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 1.4¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.70
$2.90
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 2.6¢·now 4.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.95
$1.35
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?$0.05May 16, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?$9.95May 16, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?$14.64May 16, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?$0.36May 16, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?$5.00May 16, 14:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 10, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?$4.00May 9, 14:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?$15.17May 7, 11:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 7, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?$0.00May 6, 21:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $7.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 21:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".