PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 20, 2026
Creator

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Probability

20¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.2pp

24h Vol

$97.66

Liquidity

$25.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
berlin.de
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.5pp 7d
1007550250
20¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:09 UTC
updated 07:10:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-10Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2992.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

Biggest hourly move: +3.0pp at May 16, 02:00 UTC (to 21¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • May 16, 21:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 21¢
  • May 16, 20:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 21¢
  • May 16, 03:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 21¢
  • May 16, 02:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 21¢
updated 07:10:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:10:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBerlin State Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

parliamentary election

Reason

Parliamentary election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:10:05 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 20, 2026 (2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$97.66 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.2M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $25.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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