Pessimistic-Tube
0x904c33389b909c0a8763b9393f45ec50ae622634
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$146.37
Total PnL
$-67.62
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
111 shares @ 27.1¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$46.01
$16.01
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
182 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.27
$-2.73
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
823 shares @ 3.1¢·now 1.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$12.35
$-13.65
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.75
$2.75
- NO
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
48 shares @ 20.9¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$7.16
$-2.84
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
101 shares @ 9.9¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.11
$-2.89
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$6.43
$-3.57
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
455 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.14
$1.14
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$6.07
$1.07
- YES
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
106 shares @ 4.7¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.41
$0.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?$5.16May 17, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on May 18?$36.13May 17, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$6.23May 17, 10:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 17, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 17, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on May 17?$13.46May 17, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?$10.40May 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$15.58May 16, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$89.95May 16, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$4.16May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.19May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.19May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$5.19May 15, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?$0.00May 15, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$5.16May 15, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.00May 14, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$0.00May 14, 21:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $11.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 08:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 18:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".