Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Probability
12¢
1h
-9.0pp
24h
-15.0pp
24h Vol
$11.8K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 15pp over 24h
Now 12¢; -9.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $14.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 17¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 22, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 90.8h
Price movement
-15.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -54.5pp at May 16, 08:00 UTC (to 18¢).
Show top 8 of 58 hourly moves
- May 16, 11:00 UTC · -53.5pp → 18¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · -52.5pp → 19¢
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · -54.5pp → 18¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · -53.0pp → 19¢
- May 16, 05:00 UTC · -49.0pp → 23¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · -35.0pp → 24¢
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 19¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -36.5pp → 18¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution. Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 05:11:08 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -15.0pp in the last 24 hours, -9.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$11.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $55.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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