Understated-Ceiling
0xa12709a12a1af08015297241f83ca150be01d81f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
125
Open notional
$280.17
Total PnL
$57.95
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- YES
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?
261 shares @ 1.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$261.00
$257.87
- YES
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
155 shares @ 2.3¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.66
$2.09
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
545 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.45
$-0.82
- YES
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?
353 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.29
$-0.88
- YES
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
251 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.01
$1.26
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
545 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.91
$-1.36
- YES
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
93 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.79
$-0.05
- YES
Will Wende Kennedy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.50
$-1.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.01Apr 1, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $190?$1.50Apr 1, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?$2.00Apr 1, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jalen Duren lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$0.04Apr 1, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jalen Duren lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$0.01Apr 1, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?$1.55Apr 1, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Matrix" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?$0.02Apr 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 1, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?$0.08Mar 31, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Iran" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?$2.00Mar 31, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jalen Duren lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?$0.01Mar 31, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 120-139 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.65Mar 31, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $130?$0.79Mar 31, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.25Mar 31, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.12Mar 31, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.28Mar 31, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 40-59 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.23Mar 31, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Israel" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?$0.50Mar 31, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 40-59 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.34Mar 31, 22:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 20:22 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".