Fortunate-Disappointment
0xa868e59a21a4c304c2573735fe87e19dc11f2038
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$11.8K
Total PnL
$93.31
Realised
$4.42
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?
6423 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 18, 2026$6.4K
$16.06
- YES
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
2410 shares @ 93.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.4K
$112.57
- NO
ByteDance IPO before 2027?
1262 shares @ 87.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$54.42
- YES
Bitcoin above 76,200 on May 18, 1AM ET?
757 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$756.51
$0.72
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?
353 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 18, 2026$352.24
$0.65
- NO
Bitcoin above 77,800 on May 18, 1AM ET?
198 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$198.11
$0.10
- YES
Bitcoin above 76,600 on May 18, 1AM ET?
150 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$149.93
$0.07
- YES
Bitcoin above 75,800 on May 18, 1AM ET?
150 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$149.93
$0.07
- YES
Bitcoin above 75,400 on May 18, 1AM ET?
107 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$106.82
$0.05
- YES
Bitcoin above 75,000 on May 18, 1AM ET?
102 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$101.92
$0.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET$2.3KMay 18, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 77,400 on May 18, 1AM ET?$89.72May 18, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 76,600 on May 18, 1AM ET?$149.86May 18, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 77,800 on May 18, 1AM ET?$198.03May 18, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 76,200 on May 18, 1AM ET?$755.87May 18, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 75,800 on May 18, 1AM ET?$149.86May 18, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 75,400 on May 18, 1AM ET?$106.77May 18, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 75,000 on May 18, 1AM ET?$101.88May 18, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$5.0KMay 18, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$175.00May 18, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$5.18May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$1.13May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$4.8KMay 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$0.01May 18, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$1.8KMay 18, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$29.58May 18, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$39.96May 18, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$39.96May 18, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$39.96May 18, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$34.56May 18, 02:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $525.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 01:47 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".