Muffled-Bulb
0xab8ce72565d171a73b19aa57871408e9f3f3256e
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$-600.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
513 shares @ 97.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$506.04
$6.04
- NO
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?
313 shares @ 80.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$271.88
$21.88
- YES
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
300 shares @ 89.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$235.50
$-31.50
- NO
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
300 shares @ 82.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$229.50
$-16.50
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
169 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$166.91
$4.47
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
127 shares @ 79.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$118.35
$18.35
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
132 shares @ 75.0¢·now 88.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$116.56
$17.56
- YES
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
120 shares @ 82.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$107.40
$9.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
109 shares @ 92.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$106.25
$6.25
- NO
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
123 shares @ 81.5¢·now 86.3¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$105.84
$5.84
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 15?$327.66May 16, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?$8.59May 14, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$75.62May 14, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$99.00May 14, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$22.78May 14, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?$87.11May 14, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by May 31?$250.00May 14, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$100.74May 14, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?$100.32May 14, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$262.88May 14, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?$103.46May 12, 15:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?$121.95May 12, 15:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?$103.09May 12, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage$166.67May 11, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 15?$308.00May 11, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?$100.15May 11, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?$100.17May 11, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?$100.90May 11, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage$101.20May 11, 06:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$255.00May 9, 17:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $80.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 10:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 07:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".