Honorable-Defeat
0xacd468196b50248509834a7bca8e3044cb3ea98c
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$7.1K
Total PnL
$60.57
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
17475 shares @ 8.5¢·now 9.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.7K
$177.96
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2545 shares @ 55.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.4K
$12.73
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
1094 shares @ 77.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$869.42
$19.43
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1157 shares @ 59.1¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$839.32
$155.57
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1000 shares @ 75.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$775.00
$25.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7483 shares @ 8.9¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$677.22
$11.23
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
503 shares @ 59.7¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$404.80
$104.80
- NO
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
903 shares @ 35.3¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2029$325.00
$6.00
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1429 shares @ 7.0¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$117.86
$17.86
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-210.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.09May 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.09May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.09May 16, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$309.76May 15, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.0KMay 15, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$199.02May 15, 11:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.09May 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06May 13, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$684.20May 12, 08:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 3, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $509.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 4, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".