SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 20, 2026
Creator

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

9¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$533.2K

Liquidity

$1.4M

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
1007550250
9¢
May 11, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 04:04 UTC
updated 04:05:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T04-05Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1507.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

updated 04:05:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 04:05:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 04:05:55 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 20, 2026 (2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$533.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $18.9M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.4M. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket