Quixotic-Return
0xb10aba517eecbdec9b11884c4f5cca269ecb5b24
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$318.26
Total PnL
$-218.71
Realised
$2.79
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?
253 shares @ 85.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$202.01
$-12.63
- YES
Discord IPO before 2027?
58 shares @ 66.0¢·now 54.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.78
$-6.53
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
52 shares @ 76.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$31.31
$-8.02
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
118 shares @ 46.4¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$24.11
$-30.48
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
180 shares @ 43.0¢·now 5.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.72
$-67.68
- YES
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
8 shares @ 46.6¢·now 49.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.21
$0.27
- YES
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
11 shares @ 33.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.94
$0.47
- YES
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
12 shares @ 10.0¢·now 25.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.89
$1.74
- YES
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
3 shares @ 81.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.53
$-0.02
- NO
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.99
$-0.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft acquire TikTok?$4.15May 16, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft acquire TikTok?$229.02May 16, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?$1.09May 13, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft acquire TikTok?$41.49May 12, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft acquire TikTok?$67.94May 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?$17.89May 12, 17:55 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.24May 11, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?$2.17May 10, 14:05 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.65May 9, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before 2027?$137.46May 5, 10:03 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.11May 5, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.99May 4, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$2.57May 4, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?$1.16May 4, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?$1.18May 3, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?$2.00May 3, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?$2.00May 3, 15:26 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.11May 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.83May 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.05May 1, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $66.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 20:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 16:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".