MacroExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Probability

97¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$521.30

Liquidity

$47.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Bureau of Labor
Link
bls.gov
Type
Official statistics
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+15.3pp 7d
1007550250
97¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:04 UTC
updated 07:04:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-04Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5440.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.

Biggest hourly move: +15.9pp at May 14, 09:00 UTC (to 97¢).

Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
  • May 14, 09:00 UTC · +15.9pp → 97¢
  • May 14, 07:00 UTC · +15.4pp → 97¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · +15.5pp → 97¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +15.5pp → 97¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · +15.4pp → 97¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · +15.6pp → 97¢
  • May 13, 21:00 UTC · +15.4pp → 97¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · +15.4pp → 97¢
updated 07:04:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:04:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventHow high will inflation get in 2026?
Category · Macro

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Macro

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

inflation

Reason

Question text contains "inflation" — matched the Macro keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:04:55 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +15.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$521.30 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $232.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $47.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket