Ill-Fated-Merchant
0xb1c5edbc8045a2786ffd58551df31c4ebdb3bb2c
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$17.89
Total PnL
$-5.16
Realised
$0.27
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
17 shares @ 52.0¢·now 36.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.25
$-2.71
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 40.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.88
$0.88
- YES
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?
7 shares @ 54.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$2.16
$-1.48
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 14.0¢·now 24.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.23
$0.53
- YES
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$1.18
$0.18
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15 shares @ 6.7¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 24.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.65
$-0.35
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.41
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 6, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win on 2026-06-27?$3.69Apr 23, 13:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?$0.00Apr 23, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran first?$0.69Apr 23, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMPolymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026?$1.25Apr 23, 12:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 13, 01:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 8, 00:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 7, 00:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 6, 00:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 4, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?$1.72Mar 1, 22:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 28, 00:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 27, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 24, 00:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 23, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 22, 00:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 21, 00:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $2.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 10, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".