Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?
Probability
70¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$326.60
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+41.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 70¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 6182.0h
- 10:00SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 70¢.
Biggest hourly move: +41.0pp at May 14, 12:00 UTC (to 69¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- May 14, 23:00 UTC · +38.5pp → 69¢
- May 14, 21:00 UTC · +38.5pp → 69¢
- May 14, 19:00 UTC · +38.5pp → 69¢
- May 14, 16:00 UTC · +39.0pp → 69¢
- May 14, 15:00 UTC · +41.0pp → 69¢
- May 14, 13:00 UTC · +41.0pp → 69¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · +41.0pp → 69¢
- May 14, 10:00 UTC · +40.0pp → 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
gdpReason
Question text contains "gdp" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:00:54 GMT, YES is priced at 70% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +41.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 31, 2027 (2027-01-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $326.60. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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