Improbable-Conference
0xb7dd0c08e8424d3b69e54b04beffca8b3331e5e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$11.4K
Total PnL
$1.8K
Realised
$998.55
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
5990 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$6.0K
$37.73
- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
6430 shares @ 23.8¢·now 34.8¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$2.2K
$711.33
- NO
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
3861 shares @ 35.4¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.4K
$42.66
- NO
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
541 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$527.51
$13.41
- YES
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?
530 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$526.02
$-1.08
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?
200 shares @ 87.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$189.00
$15.00
- NO
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
200 shares @ 56.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$112.98
$0.98
- NO
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 84.0¢·now 73.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$109.72
$-16.27
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
100 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$98.65
$-0.25
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
100 shares @ 92.7¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$92.85
$0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$29.86May 18, 06:44 UTC
- REWARD$2.02May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYPeru General Election invalidated by June 30?$43.88May 17, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?$29.63May 17, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$3.36May 17, 20:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$0.80May 17, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$121.61May 17, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$108.00May 17, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$13.61May 17, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$460.20May 17, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$585.60May 17, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$49.23May 17, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$78.85May 17, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$49.28May 17, 11:02 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.94May 17, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$125.45May 17, 00:26 UTC
- REWARD$4.07May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$197.69May 16, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$33.00May 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?$497.60May 16, 21:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $165.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 00:06 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".