PoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+0.9pp

24h Vol

$3.2K

Liquidity

$26.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.7pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:21 UTC
updated 06:22:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-22Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1025.6h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

updated 06:22:00 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:22:00 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

Peru’s conservative presidential candidate, Rafael López Aliaga, urged authorities to annul the April 12, 2026, general election, alleging electoral manipulation. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the results of the April 12, 2026, Peruvian general election are officially invalidated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Such invalidation must occur through authorized officials, government agencies, or competent state entities with the legal authority to nullify election results, for example through a ruling by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones or a binding decision by the Tribunal Constitucional del Perú that results in the annulment or re-run of the election. A “Yes” resolution will also occur if a new general election is officially scheduled by the relevant Peruvian authorities before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, in a manner that explicitly supersedes or replaces the April 12, 2026, election. The primary resolution source will be official information from the the government of Peru; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential candidate

Reason

Candidate markets are Politics by definition (invariant 2).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:22:00 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $102.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $26.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket