Modest-Likeness
0xbc1775a8bc4dda029c04bc4976c5612430f6289a
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$4.7K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-117.03
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
3602 shares @ 44.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.6K
$11.24
- YES
Blue tsunami in 2026?
1893 shares @ 50.6¢·now 44.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$832.88
$-125.82
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
1458 shares @ 58.7¢·now 42.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$619.65
$-235.47
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
790 shares @ 57.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$470.04
$19.75
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
330 shares @ 61.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$206.26
$4.95
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
480 shares @ 41.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$189.60
$-9.79
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
600 shares @ 33.4¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$189.30
$-11.10
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
725 shares @ 27.8¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$184.88
$-16.57
- YES
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
405 shares @ 43.4¢·now 31.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$128.18
$-47.59
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
374 shares @ 29.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$99.04
$-9.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$105.55May 18, 00:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.17May 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$102.90May 17, 02:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.17May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$221.20May 16, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$246.30May 16, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$512.84May 16, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$91.77May 16, 00:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBlue tsunami in 2026?$89.12May 16, 00:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$74.43May 16, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBlue tsunami in 2026?$2.20May 16, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBlue tsunami in 2026?$82.77May 16, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.11May 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$73.93May 16, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$146.08May 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBlue tsunami in 2026?$222.35May 15, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBlue wave in 2026?$10.61May 15, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$10.33May 15, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$224.28May 15, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$329.55May 15, 01:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $97.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 23:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".