Alarming-Leg
0xcaf59289145789242a4af6b975997344229841ab
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$118.77
Total PnL
$-3.24
Realised
$-2.35
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 25.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.33
$3.97
- YES
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
20 shares @ 21.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.60
$3.40
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 23.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$7.29
$2.05
- YES
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
84 shares @ 5.0¢·now 8.1¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$6.76
$2.56
- YES
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$6.72
$1.77
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
10 shares @ 55.8¢·now 64.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.20
$0.80
- YES
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?
6 shares @ 89.4¢·now 97.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$5.91
$0.46
- NO
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?
8 shares @ 71.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$5.89
$0.46
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 46.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.60
$1.31
- YES
Will Bernie say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Maine?
6 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$5.57
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC end in a draw?$0.82May 23, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-23?$2.38May 23, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-23?$5.07May 23, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC end in a draw?$2.41May 23, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC end in a draw?$1.94May 23, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Elon" or "Musk" in Maine?$5.55May 23, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Restructure" in Maine?$5.50May 23, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$3.44May 23, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$5.40May 23, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLCeltic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 2.5$4.69May 23, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLCeltic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 2.5$0.79May 23, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYCeltic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 2.5$4.86May 23, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 24?$3.23May 23, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLShanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5$10.50May 23, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)$5.21May 23, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)$5.33May 23, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5$2.55May 23, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYShanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5$2.81May 23, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 24?$0.83May 23, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 24?$1.63May 23, 11:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 19:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".