Distorted-Backpack
0xcf2385a383bc0e8f025c6d7f098026dc8f900d5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$514.94
Total PnL
$-378.10
Realised
$19.13
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
473 shares @ 37.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp May 17, 2026$328.69
$150.38
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
112 shares @ 39.8¢·now 47.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$52.65
$8.10
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
55 shares @ 36.4¢·now 34.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.71
$-1.29
- YES
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
44 shares @ 37.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$15.01
$-1.34
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
20 shares @ 45.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.10
$5.10
- YES
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
40 shares @ 29.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$13.60
$2.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 67.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$13.30
$-0.10
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 54.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$12.96
$4.96
- YES
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 95.8¢·now 98.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.88
$0.30
- YES
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.56
$0.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$14.00May 19, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$10.80May 19, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?$4.10May 19, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?$6.63May 19, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$47.25May 19, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$126.00May 19, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$10.38May 19, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$0.38May 19, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$0.86May 19, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?$1.46May 19, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$0.42May 19, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$11.03May 19, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$0.20May 19, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$0.03May 19, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$2.37May 19, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?$4.50May 19, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?$6.57May 19, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?$0.45May 19, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?$0.21May 19, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?$4.37May 19, 06:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $9.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 07:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 17:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".