0xcf8a14dd67fe4e41f014169698df1aa9cb032691
0xcf8a14dd67fe4e41f014169698df1aa9cb032691
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$54.68
Total PnL
$-30.14
Realised
$8.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
210 shares @ 9.5¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.60
$-5.35
- YES
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
571 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$9.42
$4.42
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
101 shares @ 7.9¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$8.35
$0.35
- YES
Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
117 shares @ 1.5¢·now 6.7¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$7.86
$6.13
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
21 shares @ 34.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$4.53
$-2.47
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
24 shares @ 41.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$4.27
$-5.73
- NO
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?
46 shares @ 10.9¢·now 4.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.84
$-3.16
- YES
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?
36 shares @ 14.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.61
$-3.39
- YES
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
11 shares @ 23.7¢·now 10.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.13
$-1.56
- YES
Will Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
29 shares @ 17.2¢·now 3.6¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.06
$-3.94
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.01May 15, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$20.85May 8, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?$6.11May 7, 18:25 UTC
- MERGEWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.00May 5, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala?$10.00May 5, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$5.00Apr 27, 11:55 UTC
- SPLITWill Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala?$10.00Apr 23, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$5.00Apr 23, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?$5.00Apr 23, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.00Apr 23, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?$2.00Apr 14, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election?$5.00Apr 14, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$10.00Apr 14, 10:47 UTC
- SPLITWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.00Apr 13, 13:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?$3.00Apr 13, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026?$1.00Apr 13, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$10.00Apr 13, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$0.00Apr 12, 14:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March?$0.00Apr 12, 14:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $6.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 20:28 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 10:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".