Probable-Strait
0xd046579ffb7034630c0d1f895ca071561cf4c496
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$692.28
Total PnL
$71.08
Realised
$12.31
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
US military draft authorized in 2026?
224 shares @ 89.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$205.12
$5.07
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
79 shares @ 75.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$71.14
$11.14
- NO
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?
59 shares @ 91.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.44
$-3.48
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
210 shares @ 6.9¢·now 23.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$50.07
$35.61
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
92 shares @ 65.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$41.72
$-18.28
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
761 shares @ 1.8¢·now 4.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$35.76
$22.10
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
31 shares @ 96.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$30.67
$0.67
- NO
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
30 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$28.35
$1.05
- NO
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?
26 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$26.12
$1.12
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
26 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$25.17
$0.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$32.00May 19, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$1.40May 19, 01:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$3.57May 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?$4.20May 18, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?$8.60May 18, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?$17.20May 18, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$0.34May 18, 03:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$12.04May 17, 11:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$25.00May 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?$12.60May 16, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$5.90May 16, 12:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$69.21May 16, 06:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$0.20May 15, 07:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$0.30May 14, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$3.93May 14, 23:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $10.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 22:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 02:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".