Informal-Bend
0xd1acd3925d895de9aec98ff95f3a30c5279d08d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
70
Open notional
$564.9K
Total PnL
$160.0K
Realised
$196.8K
Win rate
54%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
350000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$284.7K
$109.7K
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
101750 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$101.8K
$2.2K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
350000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$65.3K
$-109.7K
- NO
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
44703 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$44.7K
$918.28
- NO
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?
17801 shares @ 63.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$17.8K
$6.6K
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
20527 shares @ 34.9¢·now 51.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.6K
$3.4K
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
9447 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$9.4K
$170.06
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
14648 shares @ 13.1¢·now 62.5¢·exp May 26, 2026$9.2K
$7.2K
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
28773 shares @ 21.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.5K
$442.32
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
28172 shares @ 20.7¢·now 21.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.1K
$227.21
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.50May 18, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$41.08May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$245.00May 17, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$11.67May 17, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$63.36May 17, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$72.65May 17, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$66.13May 17, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$75.96May 17, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$146.55May 17, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$60.18May 17, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$101.82May 17, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$146.55May 17, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$541.26May 17, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$142.17May 17, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$196.00May 17, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$196.00May 17, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$196.00May 17, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$196.00May 17, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$196.00May 17, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$196.00May 17, 05:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $125.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 03:08 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".