Probable-Serial
0xd6f528abe446337922ef997233211d7a0d13d7aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-927.84
Realised
$-133.88
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- OVER
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 2.5
712 shares @ 45.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$712.00
$390.89
- YES
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
892 shares @ 76.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$584.26
$-93.66
- YES
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018 end in a draw?
553 shares @ 28.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$553.00
$397.61
- YES
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07?
987 shares @ 34.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$414.54
$78.96
- OPENAI
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
694 shares @ 27.2¢·now 20.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$145.05
$-43.72
- YES
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
687 shares @ 20.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.13
$-65.27
- NO
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
86 shares @ 58.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$22.36
$-27.52
- YES
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?
268 shares @ 24.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$12.06
$-52.26
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 73.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.63
$2.14
- NO
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.00
$0.48
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?$22.32Apr 27, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?$677.92Apr 23, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$49.88Apr 23, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?$106.42Apr 21, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$1.93Apr 21, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?$638.82Apr 21, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$8.21Apr 21, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score$975.78Apr 21, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?$1.25Apr 13, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?$73.87Apr 13, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?$189.52Apr 13, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$170.24Apr 13, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$503.86Apr 13, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$28.32Apr 13, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$636.09Apr 13, 15:58 UTC
- TRADESELLT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner$14.98Apr 13, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?$185.40Apr 13, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$276.64Apr 13, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$608.13Apr 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner$747.97Apr 13, 10:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $373.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 21:17 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".