Costly-Hour
0xd990ad35098482db6b99fdd9aa5c446eac6f4349
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$121.02
Total PnL
$-663.82
Realised
$2.12
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
87 shares @ 48.6¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$43.94
$1.69
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
58 shares @ 51.7¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.62
$-0.38
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
29 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.86
$-0.14
- NO
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
13 shares @ 95.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$13.00
$0.40
- YES
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
17 shares @ 60.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$11.92
$1.92
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.16
$0.16
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
18 shares @ 17.4¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.72
$-1.43
- YES
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.2¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.82
$-0.18
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00May 18, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the White House Press Secretary say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the next White House Press Briefing?$1.00May 18, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in May?$2.00May 18, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May?$2.00May 18, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?$1.01May 18, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$2.00May 18, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.00May 18, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$1.00May 18, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$1.00May 18, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?$2.00May 18, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2$1.01May 18, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18?$2.00May 18, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYT20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Fiji vs Philippines$1.00May 18, 05:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026?$1.08May 18, 05:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-17?$1.41May 18, 05:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?$2.03May 18, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 18?$2.95May 17, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$9.60May 17, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 18?$7.10May 17, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 18?$10.09May 17, 14:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 23:01 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".