Deficient-Pagan
0xdd4bb791094fba6287360855d5aa744e74c93568
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$841.18
Total PnL
$-312.44
Realised
$-128.14
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1483 shares @ 26.2¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$467.82
$78.65
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
238 shares @ 49.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$105.78
$-10.73
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
354 shares @ 54.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.50
$-119.67
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
127 shares @ 62.1¢·now 25.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$32.45
$-46.55
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
71 shares @ 53.2¢·now 35.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.33
$-12.48
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
74 shares @ 53.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.21
$-18.29
- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
22 shares @ 82.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$18.98
$0.63
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
62 shares @ 16.1¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.34
$0.34
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
57 shares @ 16.1¢·now 18.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.32
$1.22
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 62.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.92
$-0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$1.00May 18, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.03May 18, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31?$2.01May 18, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palmeiras win Brazil Série A?$2.03May 18, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$10.00May 18, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31?$1.01May 18, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28?$3.01May 18, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palmeiras win Brazil Série A?$3.05May 18, 02:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$22.82May 18, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYCR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score$5.06May 18, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$8.10May 18, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23?$5.12May 18, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$15.41May 18, 02:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$17.63May 18, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$30.82May 18, 02:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$34.08May 18, 02:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$9.65May 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$10.03May 17, 18:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 18:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 02:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".