Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Probability
86¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$66.47
Liquidity
$18.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 86¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $18.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 15, 06:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2135.8h
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 86¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.5pp at May 17, 03:00 UTC (to 87¢).
Show top 8 of 35 hourly moves
- 14:00 · +4.5pp → 87¢
- 12:00 · +4.5pp → 87¢
- 09:00 · +5.0pp → 87¢
- 07:00 · +5.0pp → 87¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 87¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 87¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 87¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 87¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify. This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
presidential electionReason
Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:13:49 GMT, YES is priced at 86% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +1.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 15, 2026 (2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$66.47 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $11.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $18.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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