Fat-Hotel
0xe5e851be07381d48064dbc3f90e4075f8f8576a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$476.71
Total PnL
$82.94
Realised
$212.86
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
235 shares @ 63.9¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$208.99
$58.99
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
177 shares @ 22.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$124.77
$84.72
- NO
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?
250 shares @ 50.4¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.32
$-69.87
- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
51 shares @ 78.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.92
$6.92
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
540 shares @ 27.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$16.73
$-128.78
- NO
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.50
$-28.50
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
255 shares @ 7.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.47
$-8.52
- NO
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
341 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-38.15
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10, 2026?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second-best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
81 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.63
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$0.00May 11, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$0.00May 11, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 27–May 3, 2026?$0.00May 11, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$4.15May 4, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$5.19May 3, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$0.15May 3, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$0.20May 3, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$5.60May 3, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$2.80May 3, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$2.70May 3, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$71.22May 3, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$4.15May 2, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$5.18May 2, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$6.26May 2, 13:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?$5.00May 2, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$2.08May 2, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?$11.40May 1, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026?$60.00May 1, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?$10.37May 1, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?$10.85May 1, 13:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $10.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 16:22 UTC
- Last active
- May 11, 11:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".