Understated-Patient
0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$12.7K
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-468.25
Win rate
78%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
7500 shares @ 35.4¢·now 24.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.8K
$-816.04
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
3000 shares @ 23.8¢·now 31.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$937.50
$223.50
- NO
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026?
2799 shares @ 34.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$923.60
$-27.99
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 62.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$922.50
$-7.50
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
2000 shares @ 35.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$770.01
$70.00
- NO
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
1995 shares @ 30.3¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$768.12
$162.54
- NO
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
1100 shares @ 65.1¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$643.50
$-72.50
- NO
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
648 shares @ 93.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$639.47
$32.28
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
973 shares @ 55.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$559.61
$24.33
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
1000 shares @ 47.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$510.00
$40.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$227.23May 18, 05:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.00May 18, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$7.09May 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.08May 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.37May 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$7.32May 18, 03:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.05May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.00May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 18, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$930.00May 18, 00:48 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$6.14May 18, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$20.28May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$867.24May 17, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel annex any territory by December 31?$9.44May 17, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?$0.98May 17, 17:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $100.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 08:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".