Stained-Cynic
0xf2f6af4f27ec2dcf4072095ab804016e14cd5817
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$520.2K
Total PnL
$-1.6M
Realised
$15.7K
Win rate
55%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
181993 shares @ 72.1¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$110.1K
$-21.1K
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
89304 shares @ 81.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$88.8K
$15.8K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?
90000 shares @ 93.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$85.1K
$1.2K
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
90607 shares @ 28.3¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.1K
$26.4K
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
57310 shares @ 64.3¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$36.4K
$-439.85
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
45469 shares @ 83.7¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$35.2K
$-2.8K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
191000 shares @ 17.2¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$31.8K
$-1.1K
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
69082 shares @ 29.2¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$21.8K
$1.6K
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
302604 shares @ 3.0¢·now 6.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.1K
$11.0K
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
26048 shares @ 32.6¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.6K
$3.1K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$68.53May 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.16May 18, 03:46 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.91May 18, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$2.0KMay 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$10.94May 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?$1.5KMay 17, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.7KMay 17, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$9.91May 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.01May 17, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$2.28May 17, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$3.04May 17, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.00May 17, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.00May 17, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$263.98May 17, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?$1.3KMay 17, 15:20 UTC
- YIELD$10.58May 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$10.55May 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?$0.74May 15, 16:46 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$63.42May 15, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $338.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 02:26 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".