Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
21% 45.0pp
24h volume
$4.8M
Orrery Pulse21% current8-70% 7D range+13.0pp net move
84%63%42%21%0%
21%
May 2521%+13.0pp from start
May 18May 19May 20May 21May 22May 23May 24May 25
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Athletics vs. San Diego PadresUMA PENDING
High
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesUMA PENDING
High
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsUMA PENDING
High
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles AngelsPAST EVENT
—
—
Thunder vs. SpursPAST EVENT
—
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5PAST EVENT
—
Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsPAST EVENT
—
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)PAST EVENT
—
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5PAST EVENT
—
—
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5PAST EVENT
—
—
—
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore OriolesPAST EVENT
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 95/95 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 91 | 95/98 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 87/85 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/80 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 25, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? probability down 69.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? resolves in 22h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.