2026 FIFA World Cup: Winless Team?
Probability
98¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$107.14
Liquidity
$27.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial FIFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.3pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial FIFA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 29, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 997.8h
Price movement
-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any team fails to record a win during the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or official group stage results are not available within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Winless Team?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:11:25 GMT, YES is priced at 98% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 29, 2026 (2026-06-29T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$107.14 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $274.40. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $27.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.