UnclassifiedExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Probability

22¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.3pp

24h Vol

$4.9K

Liquidity

$16.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
silicondata.com
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.3pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:58 UTC
updated 06:58:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 22¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $16.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5441.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.3pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.9pp at May 15, 07:00 UTC (to 22¢).

Show top 8 of 25 hourly moves
  • May 15, 08:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 22¢
  • May 15, 07:00 UTC · -6.9pp → 22¢
  • May 15, 05:00 UTC · -6.9pp → 22¢
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 22¢
  • May 15, 01:00 UTC · -5.7pp → 22¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -5.7pp → 22¢
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · -5.4pp → 22¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · -6.7pp → 23¢
updated 06:58:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:58:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "AI bubble burst in 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:58:41 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.3pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.3M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $16.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket