Canada recession before 2027?
Probability
16¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$12.50
Liquidity
$6.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5440.0h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: -22.0pp at 20:00 (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
- 02:00 · -10.0pp → 15¢
- 20:00 · -22.0pp → 14¢
- 18:00 · -9.0pp → 15¢
- May 15, 06:00 UTC · +8.5pp → 32¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 14¢
- May 14, 00:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 14¢
- May 13, 23:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 14¢
- May 13, 21:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 14¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
recessionReason
Question text contains "recession" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Canada recession before 2027?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:58:24 GMT, YES is priced at 16% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -8.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$12.50 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $67.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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