Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Hyderabad Kingsmen - Most Sixes Draw
Probability
49¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$6.04
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 49¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 92.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 14:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to which team hits the greater number of sixes in the cricket match between Lahore Qalandars and Hyderabad Kingsmen scheduled for 2026-04-25 in Pakistan Super League. This market resolves according to the finalized match statistics as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Lahore Qalandars will be considered correct if Lahore Qalandars is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Hyderabad Kingsmen.The outcome corresponding to Hyderabad Kingsmen will be considered correct if Hyderabad Kingsmen is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Lahore Qalandars. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market will resolve to "Draw". The market will resolve according to the team that hits the greater number of sixes in the match regardless of if the match is not competed (e.g. Due to weather conditions)/ Only sixes scored from the bat (off any delivery- legal or not) will count towards the total sixes. Overthrows and extras do not count. Sixes scored in a super over do not count. In First Class games, only first innings sixes will count. If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without official sixes statistics being recorded, the market will resolve "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and official statistics are available.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
kingsReason
Question text contains "kings" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Hyderabad Kingsmen - Most Sixes Draw"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 14:47:06 GMT, YES is priced at 49% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 2, 2026 (2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $87.41. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.04. Spread between best bid and best ask: 92.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.