TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

+1.2pp

24h Vol

$105.3K

Liquidity

$30.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 28h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.8pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 11, 2026, 12:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 11:54 UTC
updated 11:55:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T11-55Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.4× turnover

    $105.3k traded against $30.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 28h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 28 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 19, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 28.1h

    HIGH
  • 11:55Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 28h.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.2pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.2pp at 07:00 (to 1¢).

Show 6 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · -4.2pp → 1¢
  • May 16, 20:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 4¢
  • May 16, 19:00 UTC · +4.1pp → 5¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +3.3pp → 6¢
  • May 15, 19:00 UTC · +3.0pp → 5¢
  • May 15, 17:00 UTC · +3.6pp → 5¢
updated 11:55:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 11:55:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventElon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Tech

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

elon musk

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "elon musk" — matched the Tech rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:55:04 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and +0.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$105.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $389.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket