Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19?
Probability
78¢
1h
+16.3pp
24h
-10.4pp
24h Vol
$41.5K
Liquidity
$17.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 27h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 10pp over 24h
Now 78¢; +16.3pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 2.3× turnover
$41.5k traded against $17.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 27h.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $17.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 27 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 19, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 27.4h
- 12:33SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 27h.
Price movement
-10.4pp over the last 24h, now 78¢.
Biggest hourly move: -34.8pp at 02:00 (to 60¢).
Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
- 10:00 · -30.6pp → 62¢
- 09:00 · -28.8pp → 64¢
- 08:00 · -30.6pp → 63¢
- 07:00 · -31.2pp → 62¢
- 05:00 · -25.4pp → 66¢
- 03:00 · -26.0pp → 62¢
- 02:00 · -34.8pp → 60¢
- 00:00 · -28.6pp → 66¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ethereumReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ethereum" — matched the Crypto rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:33:40 GMT, YES is priced at 78% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -10.4pp in the last 24 hours, +16.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$41.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $58.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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