Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Probability
41¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$1.74
Liquidity
$1.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 16.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.8pp at May 16, 15:00 UTC (to 33¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · -10.8pp → 33¢
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · -10.4pp → 33¢
- May 16, 11:00 UTC · -10.1pp → 34¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · -9.2pp → 34¢
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · -9.6pp → 34¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · -9.3pp → 34¢
- May 16, 05:00 UTC · -9.2pp → 34¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 35¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 72¢0.0
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $11.98
- 28¢-0.5
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $7.35
- 5¢+0.4
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+1.9
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $560.00
- 7¢+0.1
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 3¢0.0
Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:50:06 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.74 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $35.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 16.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.