AIExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Probability

85¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+7.2pp

24h Vol

$4.9K

Liquidity

$24.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+69.8pp 7d
1007550250
85¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:00 UTC
updated 07:00:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 7pp over 24h

    Now 85¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $24.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 80¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1025.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+7.2pp over the last 24h, now 85¢.

Biggest hourly move: +87.8pp at May 15, 13:00 UTC (to 92¢).

Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
  • May 16, 07:00 UTC · +86.8pp → 91¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · +87.2pp → 92¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · +87.0pp → 92¢
  • May 15, 21:00 UTC · +87.1pp → 92¢
  • May 15, 20:00 UTC · +86.8pp → 91¢
  • May 15, 18:00 UTC · +87.6pp → 92¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · +86.9pp → 91¢
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +87.8pp → 92¢
updated 07:00:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 07:00:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

2
Same eventGemini 3.5 released by...?

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

AI

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

gemini

Reason

Question text contains "gemini" — matched the AI keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:00:51 GMT, YES is priced at 85% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +69.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $306.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $24.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket