PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Probability

9¢

1h

+0.2pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$891.35

Liquidity

$50.2K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-27.0pp 7d
1007550250
9¢
May 11, 2026, 10:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:45 UTC
updated 09:46:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-46Z

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5438.2h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 9¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.9pp at May 14, 00:00 UTC (to 12¢).

Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
  • May 17, 07:00 UTC · -5.2pp → 10¢
  • May 16, 21:00 UTC · -6.6pp → 10¢
  • May 16, 16:00 UTC · -6.2pp → 11¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · -9.2pp → 15¢
  • May 14, 02:00 UTC · -19.4pp → 13¢
  • May 14, 00:00 UTC · -24.9pp → 12¢
  • May 13, 23:00 UTC · -11.6pp → 12¢
  • May 13, 22:00 UTC · -22.2pp → 12¢
updated 09:46:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:46:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

indictment

Reason

Indictment markets — Politics (DOJ / state-AG activity), not Unclassified.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:46:01 GMT, YES is priced at 9% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.2pp in the last hour, and -27.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$891.35 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $320.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $50.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket