Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill?
Probability
49¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.42
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 97.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 15:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Biggest hourly move: -46.2pp at May 14, 20:00 UTC (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 56 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +46.2pp → 49¢
- 19:00 · +46.2pp → 49¢
- 17:00 · +46.2pp → 49¢
- May 17, 11:00 UTC · +46.2pp → 49¢
- May 15, 12:00 UTC · -46.2pp → 3¢
- May 15, 10:00 UTC · -46.2pp → 3¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · -46.2pp → 3¢
- May 15, 05:00 UTC · -46.2pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market is about whether any player achieves a Penta Kill during Game 2. In League of Legends, a Penta Kill occurs when a single player kills all 5 enemy champions in rapid succession. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves a Penta Kill during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves a Penta Kill. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether a Penta Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Penta Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 15:56:38 GMT, YES is priced at 49% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.7pp in the last 24 hours, -0.7pp in the last hour, and +0.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 16, 2026 (2026-04-16T22:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $110.49. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.42. Spread between best bid and best ask: 97.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.