Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
Probability
13¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-19.0pp
24h Vol
$720.38
Liquidity
$3.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 19pp over 24h
Now 13¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 18¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1023.1h
Price movement
-19.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: +43.0pp at May 17, 03:00 UTC (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +21.5pp → 28¢
- 14:00 · +21.5pp → 28¢
- 09:00 · +24.5pp → 32¢
- May 17, 07:00 UTC · +29.5pp → 37¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · +38.0pp → 45¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +38.5pp → 46¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · +43.0pp → 50¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +42.5pp → 49¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (Nasdaq) extends its trading schedule to cover at least 22 hours per day, 5 days per week by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 5 days per week refers to any 5 24-hour periods which Nasdaq treats as trading days. This is not limited to the weekday hours of the Eastern Time Zone (e.g. a day starting on Sunday at 9PM ET and ending on Monday at 9PM ET will count, as long as at least 22 of the relevant 24 hours are open for trading). A qualifying Nasdaq trading schedule must be active, operational, and publicly accessible for trading of Nasdaq-listed securities to qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The announcement of such a trading schedule within this market’s timeframe will not suffice on its own. Technical errors (e.g. a circuit breaker), trading holidays, or any planned shortened days will not disqualify this market from resolving to “Yes,” provided Nasdaq has officially implemented a qualifying trading schedule. Limited trading restrictions outside of regular market hours (i.e. lower liquidity or restricted order types) will not disqualify an extended trading schedule from resolving this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Nasdaq; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nasdaqReason
Nasdaq index — Macro / Markets.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:53:27 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -19.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +6.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$720.38 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $49.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.